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Price forecast looks GRIM for February


It’s still too early to predict what lies ahead for diesel and petrol prices in February, but the latest data available from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) isn’t looking good.

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The situation isn’t nearly as rosy as it was earlier in the month – and it’s getting worse by the day.

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As a reminder, both petrol and diesel prices dropped significantly in early January in what was welcome news for Mzansi motorists.

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Petrol decreased by R2.06 per litre for both 93 and 95 octanes, while the 0.05% diesel price dropped by R2.69 per litre and the 0.005% diesel price by R2.81.

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Looking ahead, fluctuations in international product prices and rand weakness show the following over-recoveries (price decreases) for petrol and diesel as per data at 16 January 2023:

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Fuel Price change
Petrol 93 decrease of 7 cents per litre
Petrol 95 decrease of 14 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% decrease of 37 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% decrease of 50 cents per litre
Illuminating Paraffin (wholesale) decrease of 34 cents per litre

If these market conditions persist for the remainder of January – an unlikely scenario – another decrease is on the cards for February for both petrol and diesel users of between 7 to 14 cents for petrol, while diesel motorists could see a 37 to 50 cents per litre drop.

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FUEL PRICE IN MZANSI IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

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Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R17.16/$.

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Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $84.67 a barrel.

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The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed in the coming weeks with the new prices coming into effect at midnight on Tuesday, 7 February.

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Go easy on the accelerator until then, Mzansi.

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The current prices at the pumps (Inland and Coastal):

Inland January
93 Petrol R21.10
95 Petrol R21.40
0.05% diesel (wholesale) R21.23
0.005% diesel (wholesale) R21.42
Illuminating Paraffin R15.26
LPGAS (p/kg) R34.86
Coastal January
93 Petrol R20.45
95 Petrol R20.75
0.05% diesel (wholesale) R20.58
0.005% diesel (wholesale) R20.78
Illuminating Paraffin R14.47
LPGAS (p/kg) R32.45

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